Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 120,154
2 South Dakota 110,390
3 Iowa 87,683
4 Wisconsin 87,615
5 Nebraska 84,365
6 Utah 83,154
7 Tennessee 80,945
8 Rhode Island 80,805
9 Idaho 76,913
10 Wyoming 75,513
11 Kansas 75,204
12 Montana 74,926
13 Illinois 74,527
14 Indiana 74,159
15 Minnesota 72,734
16 Arkansas 71,750
17 Oklahoma 71,414
18 Nevada 70,991
19 Alabama 70,953
20 Mississippi 69,918
21 Arizona 69,327
22 Missouri 66,345
23 New Mexico 66,127
24 Louisiana 64,648
25 Alaska 62,434
26 Florida 59,604
27 Texas 59,042
28 Kentucky 58,421
29 Georgia 57,896
30 South Carolina 57,888
31 Ohio 57,749
32 Colorado 57,000
33 Delaware 56,983
34 California 55,905
35 New Jersey 52,454
36 Michigan 51,997
37 Massachusetts 51,785
38 Connecticut 50,823
39 North Carolina 49,769
40 Pennsylvania 48,385
41 New York 48,253
42 West Virginia 45,440
43 Maryland 44,567
44 District of Columbia 40,158
45 Virginia 39,385
46 Puerto Rico 33,589
47 Washington 31,982
48 New Hampshire 30,646
49 Oregon 26,152
50 Maine 16,603
51 Hawaii 14,908
52 Vermont 11,410

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 California 1,217
2 Rhode Island 1,112
3 Oklahoma 845
4 South Carolina 843
5 Arizona 807
6 Connecticut 790
7 North Carolina 762
8 Massachusetts 725
9 Kansas 688
10 New Hampshire 678
11 Delaware 628
12 Utah 623
13 Ohio 610
14 Wyoming 598
15 Tennessee 562
16 Texas 562
17 Kentucky 536
18 Florida 506
19 New York 506
20 Nevada 496
21 West Virginia 483
22 Mississippi 438
23 Pennsylvania 437
24 District of Columbia 427
25 South Dakota 418
26 Indiana 402
27 Idaho 385
28 Alabama 371
29 Michigan 371
30 Alaska 363
31 Arkansas 360
32 Georgia 360
33 Missouri 351
34 New Jersey 340
35 Minnesota 338
36 Maryland 337
37 Nebraska 332
38 New Mexico 323
39 Virginia 319
40 Montana 316
41 Illinois 315
42 Louisiana 289
43 Colorado 284
44 Wisconsin 274
45 Washington 256
46 Iowa 251
47 Puerto Rico 233
48 Oregon 195
49 Maine 191
50 Vermont 181
51 North Dakota 146
52 Hawaii 58

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,099
2 New York 1,908
3 Massachusetts 1,763
4 North Dakota 1,675
5 Connecticut 1,655
6 Rhode Island 1,644
7 South Dakota 1,634
8 Louisiana 1,578
9 Mississippi 1,557
10 Illinois 1,379
11 Michigan 1,276
12 Iowa 1,186
13 Pennsylvania 1,180
14 Arkansas 1,172
15 Indiana 1,171
16 Arizona 1,163
17 New Mexico 1,136
18 District of Columbia 1,092
19 South Carolina 1,004
20 Florida 992
21 Georgia 976
22 Nevada 965
23 Alabama 961
24 Tennessee 955
25 Maryland 949
26 Texas 939
27 Minnesota 925
28 Missouri 923
29 Delaware 922
30 Kansas 874
31 Wisconsin 869
32 Montana 867
33 Nebraska 834
34 Colorado 815
35 Idaho 772
36 Ohio 733
37 West Virginia 704
38 Wyoming 699
39 Kentucky 642
40 North Carolina 629
41 California 620
42 Oklahoma 602
43 Virginia 569
44 New Hampshire 525
45 Puerto Rico 455
46 Washington 433
47 Utah 381
48 Oregon 340
49 Alaska 262
50 Maine 242
51 Vermont 206
52 Hawaii 199

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Wyoming 18
2 Michigan 11
3 New Mexico 11
4 Rhode Island 11
5 Arkansas 10
6 Connecticut 10
7 Massachusetts 9
8 Illinois 8
9 Mississippi 8
10 South Carolina 8
11 District of Columbia 7
12 Tennessee 7
13 Kentucky 6
14 Minnesota 6
15 New Hampshire 6
16 New York 6
17 South Dakota 6
18 Idaho 5
19 Indiana 5
20 Nebraska 5
21 North Carolina 5
22 Pennsylvania 5
23 California 4
24 Florida 4
25 Kansas 4
26 Louisiana 4
27 Maryland 4
28 Oklahoma 4
29 Vermont 4
30 Colorado 3
31 Nevada 3
32 Ohio 3
33 Alabama 2
34 Arizona 2
35 Delaware 2
36 Montana 2
37 New Jersey 2
38 North Dakota 2
39 Puerto Rico 2
40 Texas 2
41 West Virginia 2
42 Wisconsin 2
43 Georgia 1
44 Maine 1
45 Missouri 1
46 Utah 1
47 Virginia 1
48 Washington 1
49 Alaska 0
50 Hawaii 0
51 Iowa 0
52 Oregon 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 269,757 1 99
Norton Kansas 218,429 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 214,988 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 213,340 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 213,158 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 96,124 325 89
Richland South Carolina 61,803 1563 50
York South Carolina 52,289 2048 34
Orange California 49,730 2167 31
Pierce Washington 29,585 2828 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 5 99
Richland South Carolina 799 1785 43
Davidson Tennessee 791 1801 42
York South Carolina 634 2081 33
Orange California 581 2180 30
Pierce Washington 348 2607 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons